{"id":2179,"date":"2026-03-04T05:07:35","date_gmt":"2026-03-04T05:07:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/petisibrawijaya.or.id\/?p=2179"},"modified":"2026-03-15T05:10:04","modified_gmt":"2026-03-15T05:10:04","slug":"celios-belanja-apbn-2026-berpotensi-melonjak-hingga-rp515-triliun-akibat-perang-as-israel-vs-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/petisibrawijaya.or.id\/?p=2179","title":{"rendered":"Celios: Belanja APBN 2026 Berpotensi Melonjak Hingga Rp515 Triliun Akibat Perang AS-Israel vs Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"

PETISI BRAWIJAYA MEDIA, JAKARTA<\/strong> – Situasi geopolitik yang memanas di kawasan Timur Tengah akibat konflik antara Amerika Serikat (AS), Israel, dan Iran diperkirakan tidak hanya berdampak pada stabilitas global tetapi juga memberi tekanan signifikan terhadap Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) Indonesia tahun 2026.<\/p>\n

Direktur Eksekutif Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, dalam wawancara dengan media menjelaskan bahwa eskalasi konflik ini berpotensi menyebabkan tekanan terhadap harga minyak dunia yang selanjutnya akan berdampak pada pembengkakan belanja negara.<\/p>\n

Menurut Bhima, indikator utama risiko anggaran berasal dari kemungkinan lonjakan harga minyak mentah global. Dalam asumsi APBN 2026, harga minyak Indonesia ditetapkan pada kisaran US$70 per barel. Namun, jika konflik di Timur Tengah memaksa harga minyak tembus US$100\u2013US$120 per barel, maka beban belanja negara akan meningkat secara tajam.<\/p>\n

Bhima menjelaskan bahwa dalam simulasi APBN, setiap kenaikan US$1 per barel di atas asumsi harga minyak akan menambah belanja negara sekitar Rp10,3 triliun.<\/p>\n

Dengan perhitungan tersebut, lonjakan harga minyak di rentang US$100\u2013US$120 per barel bisa membuat belanja APBN naik hingga sekitar Rp515 triliun pada tahun anggaran 2026.<\/p>\n

\u201cIni bukan sekadar soal harga komoditas. Kenaikan minyak akan memicu beban subsidi energi yang membengkak, sementara rupiah juga kemungkinan melemah dan menambah tekanan pada pos belanja negara lainnya,\u201d kata Bhima.<\/p>\n

Menurut Bhima, peluang kenaikan harga ke atas masih akan terus berlanjut. Selat Hormuz yang terganggu dapat memengaruhi 20 persen pasokan minyak dunia. Kondisi pun makin kompleks dengan ditolaknya pengajuan asuransi oleh berbagai kapal logistik yang melewati area konflik.<\/p>\n

Situasi ini, lanjut dia, menyebabkan banyak negara mengalami kesulitan impor, termasuk Indonesia yang merupakan net importir minyak.<\/p>\n

Dia memperkirakan konflik ini akan memberikan konsekuensi yang besar terhadap harga bahan bakar minyak (BBM).<\/p>\n

\u201cBukan hanya beban subsidi BBM, tapi juga kompensasi ke Pertamina dan beban subsidi listrik. Ada beban ganda langsung ke APBN. Kondisi diperburuk oleh kekhawatiran flight to quality dari investor menyebabkan pelemahan rupiah,\u201d tambahnya.<\/p>\n

Selain dampak terhadap harga minyak, Bhima juga memperkirakan pasokan pangan menjadi rentan, terutama yang sensitif terhadap fluktuasi kurs dan gangguan rantai impor, seperti kedelai, gandum, dan daging.<\/p>\n

Imported inflation dari minyak dan pangan berpotensi menciptakan downward spirall ke daya beli masyarakat.<\/p>\n

“Masyarakat jelas tidak siap harga BBM dan inflasi harga pangan bergejolak (volatile food) naik berlebihan. Jika konflik berlanjut dan meluas, banyak negara berkembang jatuh pada krisis ekonomi,” tuturnya.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

PETISI BRAWIJAYA MEDIA, JAKARTA – Situasi geopolitik yang memanas di kawasan Timur Tengah akibat konflik antara Amerika Serikat (AS), Israel, dan Iran diperkirakan tidak hanya berdampak pada stabilitas global tetapi juga memberi tekanan signifikan terhadap Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) Indonesia tahun 2026. Direktur Eksekutif Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios), Bhima Yudhistira […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2180,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5,2],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-2179","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-ekonomi","8":"category-headline-news"},"yoast_head":"\nCelios: Belanja APBN 2026 Berpotensi Melonjak Hingga Rp515 Triliun Akibat Perang AS-Israel vs Iran - Petisi Brawijaya<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/petisibrawijaya.or.id\/?p=2179\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Celios: Belanja APBN 2026 Berpotensi Melonjak Hingga Rp515 Triliun Akibat Perang AS-Israel vs Iran - Petisi Brawijaya\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"PETISI BRAWIJAYA MEDIA, JAKARTA – Situasi geopolitik yang memanas di kawasan Timur Tengah akibat konflik antara Amerika Serikat (AS), Israel, dan Iran diperkirakan tidak hanya berdampak pada stabilitas global tetapi juga memberi tekanan signifikan terhadap Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) Indonesia tahun 2026. 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